Review Article
Commodity Food Prices: Review and Empirics
Table 9
State vector analysis and regression effects in final state at time 2012
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| State vector analysis at period 2012 | | Value | Probability |
| Level () | 6.47980 | | Seasonal test | 57.32373 | | Cycle 1 () amplitude | 0.03280 | .NaN |
| Seasonal effects () | Period | Value | Probability |
| 1 | 0.00616 | | 2 | 0.01636 | | 3 | 0.01594 | | 4 | 0.00958 | | 5 | 0.01404 | | 6 | −0.00147 | | 7 | 0.00260 | | 8 | −0.00819 | | 9 | −0.01116 | | 10 | −0.01867 | | 11 | −0.01896 | | 12 | −0.00620 | |
| Regression effects in final state at time 2012 | | Coefficient | Probability |
| | 0.32500 | | | 0.12425 | | | 0.10608 | | | −0.21217 | | lcoil | 0.03990 | | lreer | −0.78676 | |
| Interventions () | | Coefficient | Probability | | Coefficient | Probability |
| Level break 1994 | 0.05223 | | Outlier 1997 | 0.02872 | | Level break 1995 | −0.04487 | | Outlier 1999 | −0.04228 | | Level break 1995 | 0.05778 | | Outlier 1999 | −0.03371 | | Level break 1996 | 0.06678 | | Outlier 2003 | −0.02340 | | Level break 1996 | −0.04478 | | Outlier 2006 | −0.02928 | | Level break 1998 | −0.05266 | | Outlier 2008 | 0.03060 | | Level break 1999 | −0.03371 | | Outlier 2008 | −0.05242 | | Level break 2000 | 0.03415 | [0.0127] | Outlier 2011 | −0.04188 | [0.0002] | Level break 2001 | 0.03540 | [0.0037] | Outlier 2012 | −0.02677 | [0.0155] | Level break 2003 | −0.04459 | [0.0027] | | | | Level break 2004 | 0.05025 | [0.0006] | | | | Level break 2006 | 0.07013 | [0.0000] | | | | Level break 2007 | 0.04911 | [0.0014] | | | | Level break 2008 | 0.03841 | [0.0124] | | | | Level break 2009 | 0.07851 | [0.0000] | | | | Level break 2009 | −0.06275 | [0.0000] | | | | Level break 2010 | 0.07104 | [0.0000] | | | | Level break 2012 | 0.07473 | [0.0000] | | | |
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Values in brackets are values.
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