Using the Negative Exponential Model to Describe Changes in Risk of Smoking-Related Diseases following Changes in Exposure to Tobacco

Figure 1

Excess risks predicted by the NEM for a single change in exposure. The red lines are NEM predicted ERs for smokers of conventional cigarettes (, ER = 10) who, at the age of 40, either continue smoking these, switch to modified risk products (, 0.50, or 0.25), or quit (). The blue lines are for smokers of modified products (, ER = 5) who, at the age of 40, either continue smoking these, switch to conventional cigarettes or to other modified risk products ( and 0.25), or quit (). is set at 10 throughout.