Spatially Extended SHAR Epidemiological Framework of Infectious Disease Transmission

<div>Tracing strategy and cluster formation. (a–c) <span class="nowrap"><svg height="15.0208pt" id="M225" style="vertical-align:-3.429399pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 70.5776 15.0208" width="70.5776pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.186,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.449,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 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27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,52.55,0)"><path d="M530 686C535 705 530 712 521 712C504 712 448 684 359 674L358 648H393C437 648 439 646 429 593L400 435C372 447 345 448 332 448C286 448 194 414 144 373C68 311 23 203 23 111C23 26 57 -12 91 -12C120 -12 147 3 188 29C227 54 290 102 341 170H343L322 71C308 6 320 -12 341 -12C373 -12 442 27 501 96L485 120C455 91 422 67 408 67C401 67 401 76 404 91C440 294 479 473 530 686ZM387 375L355 241C326 187 200 53 142 53C126 53 109 73 109 130C109 217 154 337 218 381C240 396 265 404 297 404S372 390 387 375Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,59.766,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,65.326,-5.741)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g></svg>;</span> (d–f) <span class="nowrap"><svg height="15.0208pt" id="M226" style="vertical-align:-3.429399pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 58.0508 15.0208" width="58.0508pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.186,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.449,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.689,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.653,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,40.068,0)"><path d="M530 686C535 705 530 712 521 712C504 712 448 684 359 674L358 648H393C437 648 439 646 429 593L400 435C372 447 345 448 332 448C286 448 194 414 144 373C68 311 23 203 23 111C23 26 57 -12 91 -12C120 -12 147 3 188 29C227 54 290 102 341 170H343L322 71C308 6 320 -12 341 -12C373 -12 442 27 501 96L485 120C455 91 422 67 408 67C401 67 401 76 404 91C440 294 479 473 530 686ZM387 375L355 241C326 187 200 53 142 53C126 53 109 73 109 130C109 217 154 337 218 381C240 396 265 404 297 404S372 390 387 375Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,47.283,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,52.844,-5.741)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> (a, d) cluster configuration at time <span class="nowrap"><svg height="9.49473pt" id="M227" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 47.6801 9.49473" width="47.6801pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.065,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,19.328,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.568,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.808,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,40.224,0)"><path d="M530 686C535 705 530 712 521 712C504 712 448 684 359 674L358 648H393C437 648 439 646 429 593L400 435C372 447 345 448 332 448C286 448 194 414 144 373C68 311 23 203 23 111C23 26 57 -12 91 -12C120 -12 147 3 188 29C227 54 290 102 341 170H343L322 71C308 6 320 -12 341 -12C373 -12 442 27 501 96L485 120C455 91 422 67 408 67C401 67 401 76 404 91C440 294 479 473 530 686ZM387 375L355 241C326 187 200 53 142 53C126 53 109 73 109 130C109 217 154 337 218 381C240 396 265 404 297 404S372 390 387 375Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> (b, e) number of clusters, and (c, f) cumulative infected population; each curve represents a cluster.</div>

Computational and Mathematical Methods

fig9

Figure 9

Figure 9: Spatially Extended SHAR Epidemiological Framework of Infectious Disease Transmission 