The Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Mortality and the Business Cycle in Canada

Table 5

Error correction model (2). Male death rate.

	Without dummy variable			With dummy variable
	Coefficient	Standard error	𝑡-statistic	Coefficient	Standard error	𝑡-statistic
Short-run results
Constant	0.841	0.290	2.899	2.580	0.587	4.399
ΔUR𝑡	−0.039	0.018	−2.193	−0.041	0.016	−2.586
ΔrGDPpc𝑡	−3.03𝐸−05	3.27𝐸−05	−0.926	−1.90𝐸−05	2.99𝐸−05	−0.637
ΔrHEpc𝑡	1.51𝐸−04	1.92𝐸−04	0.785	1.00𝐸−04	1.75𝐸−04	0.635
DR𝑡−1 (𝜑1=𝛽1)	−0.067	0.040	−1.674	−0.362	0.096	−3.770
UR𝑡−1 (𝛽2)	−0.018	0.007	−2.618	−0.042	0.010	−4.396
rGDPpc𝑡−1 (𝛽3)	−4.33𝐸−05	1.48𝐸−05	−2.918	−5.79𝐸−05	1.42𝐸−05	−4.088
rHEpc𝑡−1 (𝛽4)	2.85𝐸−04	1.15𝐸−04	2.485	4.00𝐸−04	1.09𝐸−04	3.684
Dummy				−0.022	0.007	−3.319
	AIC = −2.172	𝑅-square = 0.309		AIC = −2.350	𝑅-square = 0.442
	SSR = 0.274	𝐹-statistic = 2.996		SSR = 0.221	𝐹-statistic = 4.557
	DW = 1.542	LM 𝐹-stat = 1.321		DW = 1.416	LM 𝐹-stat = 2.669
Long-run results
UR𝑡−1 (𝜑2)	−0.275	0.173	−1.593	−0.115	0.021	−5.577
rGDPpc𝑡−1 (𝜑3)	−6.00𝐸−04	3.89𝐸−04	−1.544	−1.60	4.78𝐸−05	−3.346
rHEpc𝑡−1 (𝜑4)	0.004	0.003	1.313	0.001	3.26𝐸−04	3.069