Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Linear and Nonlinear Regressions?

<table>Yearly Changed Exchange rate JPY/USD. Note: this figure shows the yearly changed exchange rate JPY/USD, which is calculated as <svg height="13.2199pt" id="M208" style="vertical-align:-3.542pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.6779 121.05 13.2199" width="121.05pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M600 0V24L339 665L311 657L43 24V0H600ZM497 50H107L303 539L497 50Z" id="g113-133"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="641" vert-adv-y="641"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,8.678,0)"><path d="M391 364C391 409 353 448 295 448C249 448 198 426 152 393C65 331 23 225 23 139C23 14 96 -12 146 -12C198 -12 280 9 367 101L351 124C300 78 242 48 194 48C129 48 109 107 109 162V191C208 213 391 266 391 364ZM313 350C313 305 268 261 113 223C132 334 187 381 217 398C227 404 244 405 261 405C290 405 313 385 313 350Z" id="g113-102"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="414" vert-adv-y="414"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,14.219,3.264)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,21.806,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,33.543,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,38.231,0)"><path d="M391 364C391 409 353 448 295 448C249 448 198 426 152 393C65 331 23 225 23 139C23 14 96 -12 146 -12C198 -12 280 9 367 101L351 124C300 78 242 48 194 48C129 48 109 107 109 162V191C208 213 391 266 391 364ZM313 350C313 305 268 261 113 223C132 334 187 381 217 398C227 404 244 405 261 405C290 405 313 385 313 350Z" id="g113-102"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="414" vert-adv-y="414"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,43.772,3.264)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,50.602,0)"><path d="M535 230V280H52V230H535Z" id="g117-33"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,61.582,0)"><path d="M391 364C391 409 353 448 295 448C249 448 198 426 152 393C65 331 23 225 23 139C23 14 96 -12 146 -12C198 -12 280 9 367 101L351 124C300 78 242 48 194 48C129 48 109 107 109 162V191C208 213 391 266 391 364ZM313 350C313 305 268 261 113 223C132 334 187 381 217 398C227 404 244 405 261 405C290 405 313 385 313 350Z" id="g113-102"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="414" vert-adv-y="414"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,67.124,3.264)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,70.415,3.264)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z" id="g54-33"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,76.209,3.264)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,80.828,3.264)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,86.013,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="346" vert-adv-y="346"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,90.701,0)"><path d="M368 703H309L44 -163H104L368 703Z" id="g113-48"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="412" vert-adv-y="412"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,96.288,0)"><path d="M391 364C391 409 353 448 295 448C249 448 198 426 152 393C65 331 23 225 23 139C23 14 96 -12 146 -12C198 -12 280 9 367 101L351 124C300 78 242 48 194 48C129 48 109 107 109 162V191C208 213 391 266 391 364ZM313 350C313 305 268 261 113 223C132 334 187 381 217 398C227 404 244 405 261 405C290 405 313 385 313 350Z" id="g113-102"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="414" vert-adv-y="414"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,101.829,3.264)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z" id="g50-117"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,105.12,3.264)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z" id="g54-33"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,110.915,3.264)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,115.533,3.264)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z" id="g50-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g></svg> and examined in the threshold modelling in Section <a href="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/ecri/volume-2014/746956/figures/#sec5.2.2">5.2.2</a>. See the text for more details.</table>

Economics Research International

fig1

Figure 1

Figure 1: Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Linear and Nonlinear Regressions? 