An Epidemiological Model for Examining Marijuana Use over the Life Course

Table 4

Comparison of the effect of selected policies on lifetime marijuana use and treatment utilization.

	Average years of marijuana use		Prevalence (%) of marijuana use at age			Prevalence (%) of heavy marijuana use at age			Number of treatment episodes per 10,000
	In the population cohort	Among ever-users	18	19	20	18	19	20	In the population cohort	Among those who were ever heavy user
Probability treatment is successful = 20% (base case)	5.3	8.8	33.3	34.7	33.0	6.1	7.5	8.1	524	1640
Probability treatment is successful = 35%	5.3	8.8	33.0	34.3	33.0	5.9	7.4	8.1	503	1546
Increase treatment access by 10%	5.4	8.8	33.5	34.6	33.0	6.0	7.6	8.2	585	1830
School-based drug prevention: decrease initiation by 10.9%	5.2	8.6	32.3	33.2	32.0	5.4	7.1	7.9	473	1538