Projection of Social Burden of the Elderly in Japan Using INAHSIM-II
Table 8
Derivation of model parameters (transition probabilities).
Event
Transition Probabilities
Value
Birth
Birth rate
Age of mother and birth order
Sex ratio at birth
105.5 males for 100 females
Death
Death rate
Age and sex for 0–64 years old
Dependency transition
Age and sex for 65+ years old
Marriage
First marriage rate
Age and sex
Remarriage rate
Age and sex
Divorce
Divorce rate
Duration of marriage
Probability of husband leaving household upon divorce
0.6939
Separation and return
Separation rate
Age, sex, and marital status
Return rate
Age, sex, and marital status
Household merger
Coresidency rate of adult child with parents upon marriage
Bridegroom's 0.40901 Bride's 0.17647 (no brothers) Bride's 0.02373 (otherwise)
Reuniting rate of adult child to the parent’s household upon becoming widowed
0.3
Reuniting rate of adult child to the parent’s household upon divorce
Male 0.43 Female 0.35
Merger rate of aged parent(s) with child generation
Marital status, average age of aged parent(s), and dependency
Standard merger rate of aged parent(s), , changes according to age and marital status: single male 0.015 (65) to 0.207 (100), single female 0.015 (65) to 0.123 (100), and couple 0 (65) to 0.05 (100).
Standard rate is modified according to dependency as follows:
