Table of Contents
International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
Volume 2016 (2016), Article ID 7230450, 12 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7230450
Research Article

Rainfall Variability and Trend Analysis of Annual Rainfall in North Africa

1UMR CNRS 6228 IDEES, University of Rouen, Rouen, France
2Department of Geography, “Valahia” University, Târgovişte, Romania

Received 7 June 2016; Revised 8 September 2016; Accepted 26 September 2016

Academic Editor: Prodromos Zanis

Copyright © 2016 Zeineddine Nouaceur and Ovidiu Murărescu. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The IPCC climate models predict, for the Maghreb countries, lower rainfall and increased aridity. Current observations in the three countries of central Maghreb (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) are not consistent with these predictions. To demonstrate this new trend, a detailed regional analysis of rainfall evolution is conducted. This investigation is based on the calculation of the reduced centered index and the chronological graphical method of processing information (MGCTI) of “Bertin matrix” type. The results show extreme variability of this parameter and the severe past drought (more intense for Morocco, in which the drastic conditions from the seventies are observed). The results also show the beginning of a gradual return to wetter conditions since the early 2000s in Algeria and Tunisia and from 2008 for Morocco (this trend is confirmed by recent agricultural production data in 2011/2012 and 2012/2013).