Table 2: Selected error statistics for ABS state and territory projections of total population by projection duration.

Projection duration (years)NSWVicQldSAWATasNTACT

MedAPE (%)

00.060.110.200.110.170.110.950.23
50.650.832.200.962.560.723.452.66
100.773.112.922.872.381.176.385.83
151.562.434.453.404.772.569.478.15

MedPE* (%)

00.000.020.060.040.00−0.11−0.950.00
50.12−0.52−0.530.300.58−0.28−1.44−0.24
10−0.08−1.21−2.500.28−0.300.571.924.78
15−0.150.56−4.450.53−1.322.089.347.59

Upper bound of middle 80% of APE values (%)

00.180.550.520.410.780.542.440.82
51.392.213.022.005.293.366.725.02
102.645.286.504.297.905.6211.158.57
153.796.767.924.0410.984.9017.4713.15

Lower bound of middle 80% of APE values (%)

00.000.010.000.030.000.010.000.07
50.400.370.390.390.970.280.170.60
100.110.590.630.841.010.230.961.30
150.150.421.260.921.891.363.063.47

Width of 80% interval of APE (%)

00.180.540.520.380.780.542.440.75
50.991.842.621.604.313.086.544.42
102.534.685.873.456.895.3910.197.28
153.646.346.663.129.093.5414.419.68

Source: author’s calculations using ABS projections and ERP data.
*Negative values of MedPE indicate projections which were too low on average; positive values indicate projections which were too high.