Table 4: Average errors of ABS state and territory projections of total population at 5- and 10-year-projection durations by jump-off year.

Jump-off
year
5-year projection duration10 year projection duration
MAPE (%)WMAPE (%)PRE in WMAPE (%)MAPE (%)WMAPE (%)PRE in WMAPE (%)

19781.861.94−11.63.083.30−8.2
19811.611.2432.43.091.5961.2
19841.872.00−0.63.742.60−4.3
19872.411.21−3.94.713.17−105.2
19892.511.66−30.74.342.48−34.8
19931.950.9936.42.541.90−6.0
19951.791.22−27.01.761.231.1
19971.331.208.73.753.26−66.9
19991.420.9315.44.514.20−13.5
20022.301.5029.5n/a n/an/a
20043.442.733.4n/a n/an/a
20061.201.3157.6n/an/an/a

Source: author’s calculations using ABS projections, ERP data and linear extrapolations.