Accuracy of Nearly Extinct Cohort Methods for Estimating Very Elderly Subnational Populations

Table 4

Mean Absolute Percentage Error for males at ages 100+, allowing for interstate migration (a), not allowing for interstate migration (b), and the difference (c).

(a)

MAPE for methods based on deaths and interstate migration
	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas-NT-ACT
SR (5, 5, NC)	16.0%	24.1%	22.6%	30.3%	53.1%	44.9%
SR (5, 5, 90+)	20.4%	27.5%	26.1%	34.0%	52.8%	44.6%
SR (5, 5, 85+)	19.3%	27.7%	25.4%	33.0%	55.1%	45.4%
DG (1, 5, NC)	32.9%	33.7%	34.8%	89.1%	59.5%	76.9%
DG (1, 5, 90+)	34.9%	43.3%	35.7%	80.9%	50.9%	74.4%
DG (1, 5, 85+)	33.2%	42.8%	35.5%	85.2%	55.5%	72.2%

(b)

MAPE for methods based on deaths only
	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas-NT-ACT
SR (5, 5, NC)	16.1%	24.2%	22.6%	30.2%	53.1%	44.8%
SR (5, 5, 90+)	20.4%	27.6%	26.2%	33.9%	52.3%	44.4%
SR (5, 5, 85+)	19.3%	27.7%	25.6%	33.0%	54.6%	45.3%
DG (1, 5, NC)	32.9%	33.7%	34.8%	89.1%	59.6%	76.8%
DG (1, 5, 90+)	34.8%	43.3%	34.5%	80.7%	50.8%	74.1%
DG (1, 5, 85+)	33.1%	42.8%	35.2%	85.1%	55.4%	72.1%

(c)

(a) − (b): difference in errors with and without interstate migration
	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	WA	Tas-NT-ACT
SR (5, 5, NC)	−0.1%	−0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
SR (5, 5, 90+)	0.0%	0.0%	−0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	0.2%
SR (5, 5, 85+)	0.0%	−0.1%	−0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	0.2%
DG (1, 5, NC)	−0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	−0.1%	0.1%
DG (1, 5, 90+)	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
DG (1, 5, 85+)	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%