Research Article
A Dependent Hidden Markov Model of Credit Quality
Table 1
Estimates of matrices
,
, and
.
(a) |
| Estimated matrix | Estimated matrix | | IG | SG | D | NR | | IG | SG | D | NR |
| IG | 0.408 | 0.018 | 0.000 | 0.000 | IG | 0.126 | 0.038 | 0.000 | 0.000 | SG | 0.068 | 0.249 | 0.000 | 0.000 | SG | 0.094 | 0.118 | 0.010 | 0.000 | D | 0.000 | 0.017 | 1.000 | 0.000 | D | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.000 | NR | 0.524 | 0.715 | 0.000 | 0.999 | NR | 0.780 | 0.840 | 0.990 | 1.000 |
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(b) |
| Estimated matrix | IG category | D category | | IG | SG | D | NR | | IG | SG | D | NR |
| IG | 0.119 | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | IG | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | SG | 0.076 | 0.018 | 0.000 | 0.000 | SG | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.010 | 0.000 | D | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | D | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | NR | 0.211 | 0.043 | 0.000 | 0.524 | NR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.990 | 0.000 |
| SG category | NR category | | IG | SG | D | NR | | IG | SG | D | NR |
| IG | 0.007 | 0.032 | 0.000 | 0.000 | IG | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | SG | 0.006 | 0.105 | 0.008 | 0.000 | SG | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | D | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.000 | D | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | NR | 0.008 | 0.108 | 0.009 | 0.715 | NR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.999 |
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