Table of Contents
Influenza Research and Treatment
Volume 2011 (2011), Article ID 579597, 14 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/579597
Research Article

Predictive and Reactive Distribution of Vaccines and Antivirals during Cross-Regional Pandemic Outbreaks

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USA

Received 14 July 2010; Revised 30 January 2011; Accepted 21 March 2011

Academic Editor: Lance Jennings

Copyright © 2011 Andrés Uribe-Sánchez and Alex Savachkin. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

As recently pointed out by the Institute of Medicine, the existing pandemic mitigation models lack the dynamic decision support capability. We develop a large-scale simulation-driven optimization model for generating dynamic predictive distribution of vaccines and antivirals over a network of regional pandemic outbreaks. The model incorporates measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the cost of lost productivity and medical expenses. The performance of the strategy is compared to that of the reactive myopic policy, using a sample outbreak in Fla, USA, with an affected population of over four millions. The comparison is implemented at different levels of vaccine and antiviral availability and administration capacity. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of variability of some critical factors on policy performance. The model is intended to support public health policy making for effective distribution of limited mitigation resources.