Table of Contents
ISRN Family Medicine
Volume 2013, Article ID 541091, 8 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.5402/2013/541091
Research Article

Beta-Cell Age Calculator, a Translational Yardstick to Communicate Diabetes Risk with Patients: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

1Prevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences (RIES), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 19395-4763, Tehran 1985717413, Iran
2Endocrine Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences (RIES), Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran 1985717413, Iran

Received 7 August 2012; Accepted 8 October 2012

Academic Editors: C. A. Gewa, C. Pearce, A. M. Salinas-Martinez, N. D. Sulaiman, and C. Veitch

Copyright © 2013 Mohammadreza Bozorgmanesh et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Aims. To provide a yardstick for physicians/patients to efficiently communicate/measure incident diabetes risk. Methods. We included data on 5,960 (3,438 women) diabetes-free adults, aged ≥20 years at baseline who either developed diabetes during two consecutive examinations or completed the followup. Age, systolic blood pressure, family history of diabetes, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDLD-C), and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) were introduced into an accelerated failure time regression model. Results. Annual diabetes incidence rate was 0.85/1000-person (95% CIs 0.77–0.94). Point-score-system incorporated age (1 point for >65 years), family history of diabetes (4 points), systolic blood pressure (−1 to 3 points), WHtR (−4 to 6 points), TG/HDL-C (1 point for ≥1.5), and FPG (0 to 27 points). Harrell’s C statistic = 0.830 (95% CIs 0.808–0.852) and Hosmer-Lemeshow (P for lack of fitness = 0.462) indicated good discrimination and calibration. We defined beta-cell age as chronological age of a person with the same predicted risk but all risk factors at the normal levels (i.e., WHtR 0.50, no family history of diabetes, Ln (TG/HDL-C) = 0.531, and FPG = 4.9 (mmol·L−1)). Conclusion. Hereby, we have made it also possible to estimate wide ranges of “beta-cell age” for most chronological ages to assist clinician with risk communication.