Impacts of the Recent Expansion of the Sugarcane Sector on Municipal per Capita Income in São Paulo State
Table 10
Total effect of sugarcane sector expansion on real per capita GDP (in $ of 2008), assuming that sugarcane expansion occurs exclusively in substitution to other crops.
Expansion of the sugarcane cultivated area (in percentage points of the municipal area)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Contemporaneous
2722.37
2347.80
1973.23
1598.67
1224.10
849.53
474.96
100.39
−274.17
−648.74
−1023.31
Years forward
1
4950.85
4269.70
3588.55
2907.39
2226.24
1545.09
863.93
182.78
−498.37
−1179.52
−1860.68
2
6775.04
5842.89
4910.73
3978.57
3046.41
2114.25
1182.09
249.93
−682.22
−1614.38
−2546.54
3
8268.30
7130.68
5993.07
4855.46
3717.85
2580.23
1442.62
305.01
−832.60
−1970.21
−3107.83
4
9490.64
8184.91
6879.19
5573.46
4267.73
2962.01
1656.28
350.55
−955.17
−2260.90
−3566.63
5
10 491.23
9047.84
7604.44
6161.05
4717.66
3274.26
1830.87
387.48
−1055.92
−2499.31
−3942.70
6
11 310.29
9754.19
8198.08
6641.98
5085.87
3529.77
1973.67
417.56
−1138.54
−2694.64
−4250.75
7
11 980.76
10 332.37
8683.98
7035.60
5387.21
3738.82
2090.43
442.04
−1206.34
−2854.73
−4503.12
8
12 529.59
10 805.75
9081.91
7358.07
5634.22
3910.38
2186.54
462.70
−1261.14
−2984.98
−4708.83
9
12 978.86
11 193.15
9407.45
7621.74
5836.04
4050.33
2264.63
478.92
−1306.78
−3092.49
−4878.19
10
13 346.62
11 510.36
9674.10
7837.85
6001.59
4165.33
2329.08
492.82
−1343.44
−3179.69
−5015.95
Source: research results. Effects calculated with the combination of the results shown in Table 9.
