Impacts of the Recent Expansion of the Sugarcane Sector on Municipal per Capita Income in São Paulo State
Table 12
Total effect of sugarcane sector expansion on real per capita GDP (in $ of 2008), assuming that the share of sugarcane in the agriculture remains constant (substitution of pasture and planted forests).
Expansion of the sugarcane cultivated area (in percentage points of the municipal area)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Contemporaneous
2722.37
2885.19
3048.01
3210.82
3373.63
3536.45
3699.27
3862.08
4024.90
4187.72
4350.53
Years forward
1
4950.85
5246.95
5543.04
5839.14
6135.23
6431.32
6727.42
7023.51
7319.61
7615.70
7911.79
2
6775.04
7180.24
7585.43
7990.62
8395.81
8801.01
9206.20
9611.39
10 016.59
10 421.78
10 826.97
3
8268.30
8762.79
9257.30
9751.79
10 246.29
10 740.79
11 235.29
11 729.79
12 224.29
12 718.79
13 213.28
4
9490.64
10 058.24
10 625.85
11 193.45
11 761.05
12 328.66
12 896.26
13 463.86
14 031.47
14 599.07
15 166.68
5
10 491.23
11 118.67
11 746.12
12 373.56
13 001.01
13 628.45
14 255.90
14 883.35
15 510.79
16 138.24
16 765.68
6
11 310.29
11 986.72
12 663.15
13 339.58
14 016.02
14 692.45
15 368.87
16 045.31
16 721.74
17 398.17
18 074.60
7
11 980.76
12 697.29
13 413.82
14 130.35
14 846.88
15 563.41
16 279.94
16 996.46
17 712.99
18 429.52
19 146.05
8
12 529.59
13 278.95
14 028.30
14 777.66
15 527.01
16 276.36
17 025.72
17 775.07
18 524.42
19 273.78
20 023.13
9
12 978.86
13 755.08
14 531.30
15 307.52
16 083.75
16 859.97
17 636.19
18 412.42
19 188.64
19 964.86
20 741.08
10
13 346.62
14 144.84
14 943.05
15 741.27
16 539.49
17 337.70
18 135.92
18 934.14
19 732.36
20 530.57
21 328.79
Source: research results. Effects calculated with the combination of the results shown in Table 11.
