Impacts of the Recent Expansion of the Sugarcane Sector on Municipal per Capita Income in São Paulo State

Table 6

Impact on real per capita GDP (in $ of 2008) of a 10 p.p. permanent increase in the share of agriculture relative to the municipal farmland area.

	Average municipal effect		Accumulated average municipal effect
	Direct	Indirect	Direct	Indirect
Contemporaneous	113.72	3.27	113.72	3.27
Years forward
1	65.56	4.51	179.28	7.79
2	38.19	4.73	217.47	12.51
3	22.52	4.45	239.99	16.97
4	13.48	3.97	253.47	20.94
5	8.21	3.44	261.68	24.38
6	5.10	2.92	266.78	27.31
7	3.24	2.46	270.03	29.77
8	2.11	2.05	272.14	31.81
9	1.41	1.70	273.54	33.51
10	0.96	1.40	274.50	34.91

Source: research results.
Indirect effects were divided by 15 in order to turn the results comparable at the municipal level.