New Cancer Stochastic Models Involving Both Hereditary and Nonhereditary Cancer Cases: A New Approach

Table 1

The SEER incidence data (1973–2007) of uveal melanoma from NCI/NIH (over all races and genders).

Age; groups	Number; of people; at risk	Observed; incidence	Model-F; predicated	Model-1; predicated	Two-stage; predicated
0	12,495,777	34	36	36	38
1	12,221,582	20	11	11	16
2	12,120,990	14	7	8	17
3	12,112,995	9	5	6	18
4	12,146,174	4	4	5	20
5	12,161,336	3	3	4	22
6	12,111,854	2	2	4	25
7	12,160,452	2	2	4	28
8	11,942,586	2	2	4	30
9	12,381,299	1	2	5	34
10	12,512,703	2	3	6	38
11	12,410,338	5	3	6	41
12	12,449,244	2	3	6	44
13	12,527,781	5	4	7	48
14	12,602,883	3	5	7	51
15	12,719,598	5	5	8	55
16	12,766,107	7	6	9	59
17	12,831,400	9	7	9	62
18	12,382,047	8	7	9	63
19	12,581,638	10	8	10	68
20	12,636,509	7	9	11	71
21	12,682,601	6	10	10	75
22	12,840,510	12	11	11	79
23	13,075,528	17	13	13	84
24	13,358,635	16	15	14	89
25	13,473,849	12	16	16	94
26	13,426,340	17	18	18	97
27	13,525,264	28	20	20	101
28	13,149,674	17	22	21	102
29	13,812,811	23	25	25	110
30	13,886,874	24	28	27	114
31	13,488,332	37	30	29	115
32	13,460,286	32	32	32	118
33	13,256,067	38	35	35	119
34	13,428,827	37	39	38	124
35	13,220,037	40	41	41	126
36	12,870,265	30	44	44	126
37	12,689,592	43	47	47	127
38	12,157,014	42	49	49	125
39	12,494,081	46	55	54	131
40	12,272,125	49	58	58	132
41	11,826,573	56	61	60	130
42	11,663,153	54	65	64	131
43	11,407,082	53	68	68	131
44	11,296,848	70	73	72	133
45	11,016,369	57	76	76	132
46	10,651,593	71	79	79	130
47	10,475,708	87	84	83	131
48	9,994,684	82	86	85	127
49	10,138,908	78	93	93	131
50	9,836,359	87	97	96	130
51	9,475,641	95	100	99	127
52	9,250,985	113	104	104	126
53	9,027,382	106	108	108	125
54	8,883,737	117	113	113	125
55	8,547,883	129	116	116	123
56	8,279,648	107	119	119	121
57	8,062,368	119	123	123	119
58	7,654,610	132	124	124	115
59	7,563,706	118	130	129	115
60	7,232,719	131	131	130	112
61	6,927,332	116	132	132	109
62	6,708,273	133	134	134	107
63	6,543,931	143	138	137	106
64	6,404,652	130	141	141	105
65	6,168,486	145	142	142	102
66	5,913,479	138	142	142	99
67	5,746,766	151	144	144	98
68	5,480,517	147	142	142	94
69	5,363,912	149	144	144	94
70	5,110,728	136	142	142	90
71	4,925,076	144	141	141	88
72	4,696,825	140	138	138	85
73	4,512,136	146	135	135	82
74	4,345,300	126	133	133	80
75	4,148,801	122	128	129	78
76	3,900,900	124	122	122	74
77	3,681,587	114	116	116	70
78	3,481,918	93	110	110	67
79	3,243,631	102	102	102	63
80	2,961,234	79	92	93	58
81	2,724,984	93	83	84	54
82	2,495,219	82	75	75	50
83	2,271,595	92	66	67	46
84	2,041,351	64	57	58	42
85	10,466,605	304	282	285	216

Note 1: for age 0 and 1–10 years old, the cancer incidence are derived by subtracting incidence of retinoblastoma from the original SEER data (see Tan and Zhou [9]).
Note 2: the observed uveal melanoma incidence rates per 10⁶ individuals are derived from the SEER eye cancer incidence by subtracting retinoblastoma incidence as given in Tan and Zhou [9].