Table of Contents
International Scholarly Research Notices
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 632804, 7 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/632804
Research Article

Application of Gray Markov Model to Prediction of Accidents Deaths in Coal Mining

School of Energy Science and Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China

Received 30 July 2014; Revised 28 September 2014; Accepted 28 September 2014; Published 4 November 2014

Academic Editor: Vladimir Strezov

Copyright © 2014 Jian-yi Lan and Ying Zhou. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The prediction of mine accident is the basis of aviation safety assessment and decision making. Gray prediction is suitable for such kinds of system objects with few data, short time, and little fluctuation, and Markov chain theory is just suitable for forecasting stochastic fluctuating dynamic process. Analyzing the coal mine accident human error cause, combining the advantages of both Gray prediction and Markov theory, an amended Gray Markov model is proposed. The gray model is applied to imitate the development tendency of the mine safety accident, and adopt the amended model to improve prediction accuracy, while Markov prediction is used to predict the fluctuation along the tendency. Finally, the new model is applied to forecast the mine safety accident deaths from 1990 to 2010 in China, and, 2011–2014 coal accidents deaths were predicted. The results show that the new model not only discovers the trend of the mine human error accident death toll but also overcomes the random fluctuation of data affecting precision. It possesses stronger engineering application.