A Study of Time Series Model for Predicting Jute Yarn Demand: Case Study

Table 4

Forecasting errors under Winters method.

Smoothing constant alpha (level)	Smoothing constant gamma (trend)	Smoothing constant delta (seasonal)	Winters additive model			Winters multiplicative model
			MAPE	MAD	MSD	MAPE	MAD	MSD
0.1	0.1	0.1	6.08	48.51	5030.6	7.16	61.75	7560.57
0.1	0.1	0.2	6.21	49.99	5414.65	7.42	64.46	8376.62
0.1	0.1	0.3	6.36	51.73	5807.84	7.66	66.66	9235.14
0.1	0.2	0.1	6.21	49.55	5204.78	7.44	63.17	7537.56
0.1	0.2	0.2	6.38	51.38	5608.68	7.84	68.07	8643.47
0.1	0.2	0.3	6.57	53.43	6012.93	8.26	72.77	9873.75
0.1	0.3	0.1	6.48	51.77	5537.25	7.67	63.24	7413.21
0.1	0.3	0.2	6.61	53.44	5991.33	8.2	69.22	8616.98
0.1	0.3	0.3	6.79	55.46	6442.68	9	77.5	10167.7
0.2	0.1	0.1	5.35	43.04	4779.84	5.89	48.51	5563.59
0.2	0.1	0.2	5.45	44.28	5124.34	6.13	51.3	6212.32
0.2	0.1	0.3	5.56	45.63	5473.25	6.38	54.18	6908.63
0.2	0.2	0.1	5.59	45.14	5166.55	6.37	51.91	5863.92
0.2	0.2	0.2	5.68	46.48	5571.86	6.64	55.02	6609.84
0.2	0.2	0.3	5.83	48.21	5994.81	6.96	58.51	7481.55
0.2	0.3	0.1	5.93	48.24	5643.04	6.68	54.74	6380.57
0.2	0.3	0.2	6.07	50.14	6130.07	7.04	58.76	7246.09
0.2	0.3	0.3	6.28	52.5	6660.18	7.42	62.88	8305.83
0.3	0.1	0.1	5.06	40.58	4705.68	5.38	43.92	5089.33
0.3	0.1	0.2	5.11	41.38	5003.92	5.55	45.84	5624.94
0.3	0.1	0.3	5.19	42.43	5309.95	5.74	47.84	6204.97
0.3	0.2	0.1	5.39	43.47	5153.21	5.65	46.38	5550.05
0.3	0.2	0.2	5.47	44.51	5493.52	5.88	48.8	6141.81
0.3	0.2	0.3	5.56	45.74	5852.34	6.11	51.21	6803.38
0.3	0.3	0.1	5.7	46.13	5652.62	5.73	47.36	6066.61
0.3	0.3	0.2	5.78	47.21	6033.21	5.98	49.94	6723.87
0.3	0.3	0.3	5.89	48.56	6446.37	6.25	52.75	7472.54