Prediction of Agricultural Water Consumption in 2 Regions of China Based on Fractional-Order Cumulative Discrete Grey Model

Table 2

Comparison of prediction effect of the model.

Study area	Year	Original value	GM (1, 1) model		model
			Predicted value	Relative error	Predicted value	Relative error
Handan region	2011	12.86	12.86	0.00%	12.86	0.00
	2012	14.96	14.73	1.51%	14.49	3.16
	2013	14.02	14.42	2.84%	14.41	2.76
	2014	14.62	14.11	3.51%	14.04	3.98
	2015	14.14	13.80	2.38%	13.68	3.23
	2016	12.72	13.51	6.18%	13.39	5.24
	2017	12.98	13.22	1.82%	13.14	1.25
	2018	12.75	12.93	1.43%	12.94	1.47
	2019	12.96	12.65	2.37%	12.76	1.53
	2020	12.61	12.38	1.81%	12.61	0
	Mean			2.38%		2.26
Jingzhou region	2011	26.28	26.28	0.00%	26.28	0.00
	2012	24.62	26.07	5.91%	25.53	3.70
	2013	29.55	26.147	11.53%	25.50	13.71
	2014	26.49	26.21	1.06%	25.69	3.03
	2015	25.11	26.27	4.64%	26.98	3.48
	2016	24.01	26.34	9.71%	26.34	9.72
	2017	26.31	26.41	0.38%	26.74	1.65
	2018	26.7	26.48	0.84%	27.17	1.78
	2019	27.68	26.54	4.11%	27.63	0.19
	Mean			4.24%		4.14