Research Article
Prediction of Agricultural Water Consumption in 2 Regions of China Based on Fractional-Order Cumulative Discrete Grey Model
Table 2
Comparison of prediction effect of the model.
| Study area | Year | Original value | GM (1, 1) model | model | Predicted value | Relative error | Predicted value | Relative error |
| Handan region | 2011 | 12.86 | 12.86 | 0.00% | 12.86 | 0.00 | 2012 | 14.96 | 14.73 | 1.51% | 14.49 | 3.16 | 2013 | 14.02 | 14.42 | 2.84% | 14.41 | 2.76 | 2014 | 14.62 | 14.11 | 3.51% | 14.04 | 3.98 | 2015 | 14.14 | 13.80 | 2.38% | 13.68 | 3.23 | 2016 | 12.72 | 13.51 | 6.18% | 13.39 | 5.24 | 2017 | 12.98 | 13.22 | 1.82% | 13.14 | 1.25 | 2018 | 12.75 | 12.93 | 1.43% | 12.94 | 1.47 | 2019 | 12.96 | 12.65 | 2.37% | 12.76 | 1.53 | 2020 | 12.61 | 12.38 | 1.81% | 12.61 | 0 | Mean | | | 2.38% | | 2.26 | Jingzhou region | 2011 | 26.28 | 26.28 | 0.00% | 26.28 | 0.00 | 2012 | 24.62 | 26.07 | 5.91% | 25.53 | 3.70 | 2013 | 29.55 | 26.147 | 11.53% | 25.50 | 13.71 | 2014 | 26.49 | 26.21 | 1.06% | 25.69 | 3.03 | 2015 | 25.11 | 26.27 | 4.64% | 26.98 | 3.48 | 2016 | 24.01 | 26.34 | 9.71% | 26.34 | 9.72 | 2017 | 26.31 | 26.41 | 0.38% | 26.74 | 1.65 | 2018 | 26.7 | 26.48 | 0.84% | 27.17 | 1.78 | 2019 | 27.68 | 26.54 | 4.11% | 27.63 | 0.19 | Mean | | | 4.24% | | 4.14 |
|
|