Table of Contents Author Guidelines
Malaria Research and Treatment
Volume 2016, Article ID 7104291, 7 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7104291
Research Article

Assessing the Role of Climate Change in Malaria Transmission in Africa

1Department of Mathematics, University of Zimbabwe, P.O. Box MP 167 Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe
2Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
3Department of Physics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Received 22 September 2015; Revised 22 January 2016; Accepted 23 February 2016

Academic Editor: Rana Chattopadhyay

Copyright © 2016 E. T. Ngarakana-Gwasira et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission dynamics of malaria. The reproduction number obtained is applied to gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for baseline climate and future climate with aid of GIS. As a result of climate change, malaria burden is likely to increase in the tropics, the highland regions, and East Africa and along the northern limit of falciparum malaria. Falciparum malaria will spread into the African highlands; however it is likely to die out at the southern limit of the disease.