Statistical Methods for Predicting Malaria Incidences Using Data from Sudan

Table 2

Models, parameter estimates, and fit statistics for malaria incidence: Gadaref State.

Model	Variable	Coefficient	Std. error	-statistic	Prob.		AIC	MAE
ARIMA		−2.35	22.60	−0.10	0.918	0.10	12.55	92.15
	AR(1)	−0.74	0.16	−4.60	<0.001
	AR(2)	0.18	0.16	1.14	0.263
	MA(1)	0.95	0.03	30.17	<0.001
Exponential smoothing		421.90	4.02	104.94	<0.001	0.71	11.93	92.43
	AR(1)	1.73	0.07	25.11	<0.001
	AR(2)	−0.96	0.07	−13.82	<0.001
	MA(1)	−1.30	0.17	−7.49	<0.001
	MA(2)	0.34	0.169	2.11	0.041
Transformation		0.013		486.57	<0.001	0.69	−12.30	0.0008
	AR(1)	1.62	0.087	18.73	<0.001
	AR(2)	−0.85	0.089	−9.62	<0.001
	MA(1)	−0.96	0.02	−36.79	<0.001
Moving average		413.36	27.88	14.83	<0.001	0.31	10.94	44.67
	AR(1)	0.88	0.12	7.39	<0.001
	MA(1)	−0.56	0.20	−2.82	0.007