Statistical Methods for Predicting Malaria Incidences Using Data from Sudan

Table 3

Models, parameter estimates, and fit statistics for malaria incidence: Gezira State.

Model	Variable	Coefficient	Std. error	t-statistic	Prob.		AIC	MAE
ARIMA		1560.10	48.40	32.23	<0.001	0.59	14.73	346.56
	AR(1)	1.59	0.11	14.85	<0.001
	AR(2)	−0.69	0.10	−6.68	<0.001
	MA(1)	−0.98	0.04	−22.81	<0.001
Exponential smoothing		1554.54	25.91	60.00	<0.001	0.57	14.76	362.60
	AR(1)	1.60	0.11	14.65	<0.001
	AR(2)	−0.67	0.10	−6.46	<0.001
	MA(1)	−0.99	0.03	−38.05	<0.001
Transformation		0.01		119.94	<0.001	0.55	−15.12
	AR(1)	1.57	0.13	12.28	<0.001
	AR(2)	−0.83	0.12	−6.98	<0.001
	MA(1)	−1.04	0.17	−6.02	<0.001
	MA(2)	0.55	0.17	3.27	0.002
Moving average		−19.60	14.38	−1.36	0.181	0.32	13.56	153.40
	AR(1)	0.81	0.13	6.17	<0.001
	AR(2)	−0.75	0.10	−7.38	<0.001
	MA(1)	−1.44	0.17	−8.43	<0.001
	MA(2)	1.45	0.14	10.52	<0.001
	MA(3)	−0.57	0.15	−3.78	<0.001