Full-Disk Solar Flare Forecasting Model Based on Data Mining Method

<table class="fixed-width table-group" id="tab2"><tr><td><table class="table"><colgroup><col style="width:7.45em"/><col style="width:7.97em"/><col style="width:8.16em"/></colgroup><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left"> </td><td class="align_center">Forecast positive</td><td class="align_center">Forecast negative</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Actual positive</td><td class="align_center">N<svg height="6.1464pt" id="M9" style="vertical-align:-3.18151pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -2.96489 11.5678 6.1464" width="11.5678pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,0,3.132)"><path d="M601 496C596 555 591 627 591 675H567C551 656 544 650 516 650H120C91 650 79 651 64 675H41C38 619 34 555 29 492H63C75 537 83 566 96 582C110 604 128 612 207 612H272V126C272 46 264 38 170 33V0H464V33C368 38 359 48 359 126V612H430C502 612 520 605 535 582C547 566 556 541 567 492L601 496Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.715,3.132)"><path d="M46 650V618C122 613 130 611 130 522V128C130 46 123 40 40 32V0H319V32C227 40 217 42 217 128V279L292 260C303 259 322 258 338 261C436 272 534 337 534 467C534 534 508 580 469 609C428 640 371 650 299 650H46ZM217 558C217 585 220 596 228 603C235 610 256 615 284 615C367 615 435 571 435 463C435 339 358 304 291 304C256 304 229 310 217 317V558Z"></path></g></svg></td><td class="align_center">N<svg height="6.19207pt" id="M10" style="vertical-align:-3.22718pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -2.96489 12.4173 6.19207" width="12.4173pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,0,3.132)"><path d="M502 500C497 551 492 613 491 650H43V617C122 612 130 606 130 521V129C130 45 122 38 41 33V0H319V33C227 38 217 45 217 129V305H319C411 305 413 295 427 225H461V421H427C414 357 411 348 319 348H217V580C217 609 219 612 250 612H330C401 612 423 605 439 578C452 557 458 539 467 496L502 500Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,4.914,3.132)"><path d="M731 650H485V618C556 614 580 601 585 558C588 530 592 485 592 390V153H589L173 650H22V618C69 614 92 606 112 582C131 558 132 555 132 483V266C132 175 129 128 125 96C120 49 95 36 36 33V0H281V33C212 36 188 50 183 98C180 129 177 175 177 266V510H179L603 -9H638V390C638 483 640 530 644 561C649 602 674 615 731 618V650Z"></path></g></svg></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Actual negative</td><td class="align_center">N<svg height="6.1464pt" id="M11" style="vertical-align:-3.18151pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -2.96489 10.764 6.1464" width="10.764pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,0,3.132)"><path d="M502 500C497 551 492 613 491 650H43V617C122 612 130 606 130 521V129C130 45 122 38 41 33V0H319V33C227 38 217 45 217 129V305H319C411 305 413 295 427 225H461V421H427C414 357 411 348 319 348H217V580C217 609 219 612 250 612H330C401 612 423 605 439 578C452 557 458 539 467 496L502 500Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,4.914,3.132)"><path d="M46 650V618C122 613 130 611 130 522V128C130 46 123 40 40 32V0H319V32C227 40 217 42 217 128V279L292 260C303 259 322 258 338 261C436 272 534 337 534 467C534 534 508 580 469 609C428 640 371 650 299 650H46ZM217 558C217 585 220 596 228 603C235 610 256 615 284 615C367 615 435 571 435 463C435 339 358 304 291 304C256 304 229 310 217 317V558Z"></path></g></svg></td><td class="align_center">N<svg height="6.19207pt" id="M12" style="vertical-align:-3.22718pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -2.96489 13.2211 6.19207" width="13.2211pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,0,3.132)"><path d="M601 496C596 555 591 627 591 675H567C551 656 544 650 516 650H120C91 650 79 651 64 675H41C38 619 34 555 29 492H63C75 537 83 566 96 582C110 604 128 612 207 612H272V126C272 46 264 38 170 33V0H464V33C368 38 359 48 359 126V612H430C502 612 520 605 535 582C547 566 556 541 567 492L601 496Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.715,3.132)"><path d="M731 650H485V618C556 614 580 601 585 558C588 530 592 485 592 390V153H589L173 650H22V618C69 614 92 606 112 582C131 558 132 555 132 483V266C132 175 129 128 125 96C120 49 95 36 36 33V0H281V33C212 36 188 50 183 98C180 129 177 175 177 266V510H179L603 -9H638V390C638 483 640 530 644 561C649 602 674 615 731 618V650Z"></path></g></svg></td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="3"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Definition of contingency table.</div>

Advances in Astronomy

tab2

Table 2

Table 2: Full-Disk Solar Flare Forecasting Model Based on Data Mining Method 