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Abstract and Applied Analysis
Volume 2014, Article ID 183095, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/183095
Research Article

An Optimized Forecasting Approach Based on Grey Theory and Cuckoo Search Algorithm: A Case Study for Electricity Consumption in New South Wales

1School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China
2School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
3Department of Statistics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32310, USA

Received 17 March 2014; Accepted 18 April 2014; Published 3 June 2014

Academic Editor: Fuding Xie

Copyright © 2014 Ping Jiang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

With rapid economic growth, electricity demand is clearly increasing. It is difficult to store electricity for future use; thus, the electricity demand forecast, especially the electricity consumption forecast, is crucial for planning and operating a power system. Due to various unstable factors, it is challenging to forecast electricity consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to establish new models for accurate forecasts. This study proposes a hybrid model, which includes data selection, an abnormality analysis, a feasibility test, and an optimized grey model to forecast electricity consumption. First, the original electricity consumption data are selected to construct different schemes (Scheme 1: short-term selection and Scheme 2: long-term selection); next, the iterative algorithm (IA) and cuckoo search algorithm (CS) are employed to select the best parameter of GM(1,1). The forecasted day is then divided into several smooth parts because the grey model is highly accurate in the smooth rise and drop phases; thus, the best scheme for each part is determined using the grey correlation coefficient. Finally, the experimental results indicate that the GM(1,1) optimized using CS has the highest forecasting accuracy compared with the GM(1,1) and the GM(1,1) optimized using the IA and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.