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Abstract and Applied Analysis
Volume 2014, Article ID 238724, 9 pages
Research Article

A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China

1College of Mathematics and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China
2Wenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wenzhou 325000, China

Received 21 January 2014; Accepted 27 January 2014; Published 3 March 2014

Academic Editor: Kaifa Wang

Copyright © 2014 Jie Li et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


To investigate the variability of HFMD in each county of Wenzhou, a spatial-temporal ARMA model is presented, and a general Bayesian framework is given for parameter estimation. The proposed model has two advantages: (i) allowing time series to be correlated, thus it can describe the series both spatially and temporally; (ii) implementing forecast easily. Based on the HFMD data in Wenzhou, we find that HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation and the incidence seasonal peak was between May and July. In the county-level analysis, we find that after first-order difference the spatial-temporal ARMA model provides an adequate fit to the data.