Intelligent Optimized Combined Model Based on GARCH and SVM for Forecasting Electricity Price of New South Wales, Australia

Table 2

Forecasted results comparisons among three models.

Times	Actual values	GARCH model			SVM model			Combined model
		Forecasted values	MAE ($AU)	MAPE (%)	Forecasted values	MAE ($AU)	MAPE (%)	Forecasted values	MAE ($AU)	MAPE (%)
0:00	26.1	24.991	1.109	4.25	27.105	1.005	3.85	25.402	0.698	2.68
0:30	22.53	25.000	2.470	10.96	26.405	3.875	17.20	25.273	2.743	12.18
1:00	21.23	24.902	3.672	17.30	26.374	5.144	24.23	25.188	3.958	18.64
1:30	21.33	24.779	3.448	16.16	25.413	4.083	19.14	24.901	3.571	16.74
2:00	16.12	24.772	8.652	53.67	24.263	8.143	50.52	24.673	8.553	53.06
2:30	19.79	24.268	4.478	22.63	22.438	2.648	13.38	23.912	4.122	20.83
3:00	19.18	24.540	5.360	27.94	17.846	1.334	6.95	23.240	4.060	21.17
3:30	19.91	24.547	4.637	23.29	20.014	0.104	0.52	23.667	3.757	18.87
4:00	20.47	24.612	4.142	20.23	17.685	2.785	13.60	23.267	2.797	13.66
4:30	19.91	24.671	4.761	23.91	18.550	1.360	6.83	23.482	3.572	17.94
5:00	19.91	24.631	4.721	23.71	22.415	2.505	12.58	24.201	4.291	21.55
5:30	20.08	24.626	4.546	22.64	26.576	6.496	32.35	25.005	4.925	24.53
6:00	24.96	24.640	0.320	0.128	20.701	4.259	17.06	23.875	1.085	4.35
6:30	19.47	24.898	5.428	27.88	21.765	2.295	11.79	24.290	4.820	24.75
7:00	25.57	24.608	0.962	3.76	24.454	1.116	4.36	24.578	0.992	3.88
7:30	27.16	24.871	2.289	8.43	24.403	2.757	10.15	24.780	2.380	8.76
8:00	26.23	24.890	1.340	5.11	26.178	0.052	0.20	25.140	1.090	4.16
8:30	27.32	24.959	2.361	8.64	26.494	0.826	3.02	25.257	2.063	7.55
9:00	31.4	24.904	6.496	20.69	27.014	4.386	13.97	25.314	6.086	19.38
9:30	28.75	24.502	4.248	14.78	28.152	0.598	2.08	25.211	3.539	12.31
10:00	28.76	24.631	4.129	14.36	27.438	1.323	4.60	25.176	3.584	12.46
10:30	26.99	24.677	2.313	8.57	29.447	2.457	9.10	25.604	1.386	5.14
11:00	26.52	24.831	1.689	6.37	29.883	3.363	12.68	25.812	0.708	2.67
11:30	25.94	24.920	1.020	3.93	27.960	2.020	7.79	25.510	0.430	1.66
12:00	26.85	24.985	1.865	6.95	29.533	2.683	9.99	25.868	0.982	3.66
12:30	26.21	24.949	1.261	4.81	31.315	5.105	19.48	26.185	0.025	0.10
13:00	25.29	24.981	0.309	1.22	32.120	6.830	27.01	26.367	1.077	4.26
13:30	24.37	25.028	0.658	2.70	30.774	6.404	26.28	26.144	1.774	7.28
14:00	24.45	25.031	0.581	2.38	32.635	8.185	33.48	26.508	2.058	8.42
14:30	22.03	25.034	3.004	13.64	33.094	11.064	50.22	26.599	4.569	20.74
15:00	25.09	24.860	0.230	0.92	36.180	11.090	44.20	27.058	1.968	7.84
15:30	24.34	24.988	0.648	2.66	31.713	7.373	30.29	26.294	1.954	8.03
16:00	25.33	25.021	0.309	1.22	32.692	7.362	29.06	26.510	1.180	4.66
16:30	25.85	25.039	0.811	3.14	29.826	3.976	15.38	25.968	0.118	0.46
17:00	26.48	25.027	1.453	5.49	32.604	6.124	23.13	26.498	0.018	0.07
17:30	27.63	24.987	2.643	9.57	30.468	2.838	10.27	26.052	1.578	5.71
18:00	27.07	24.885	2.185	8.07	31.577	4.507	16.65	26.185	0.885	3.27
18:30	27.17	24.901	2.269	8.35	31.612	4.442	16.35	26.205	0.965	3.55
19:00	27.3	24.899	2.401	8.80	32.823	5.523	20.23	26.438	0.862	3.16
19:30	26.23	24.888	1.342	5.12	32.078	5.848	22.30	26.284	0.054	0.21
20:00	25.37	24.959	0.412	1.62	31.456	6.086	23.99	26.220	0.850	3.35
20:30	23.04	25.019	1.979	8.59	30.320	7.280	31.60	26.048	3.008	13.06
21:00	20.1	24.946	4.846	24.11	29.348	9.248	46.01	25.801	5.701	28.36
21:30	24.17	24.672	0.502	2.08	27.873	3.703	15.32	25.293	1.123	4.65
22:00	20.98	24.909	3.929	8.73	25.414	4.434	21.14	25.007	4.027	19.20
22:30	25.09	24.755	0.335	1.34	25.668	0.578	2.31	24.932	0.158	0.63
23:00	23.4	24.946	1.546	6.61	24.871	1.471	6.29	24.931	1.531	6.54
23:30	23.75	24.962	1.212	5.10	25.736	1.986	8.36	25.113	1.363	5.74
Mean error			2.53	11.33		4.15	17.65		2.35	10.66