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Abstract and Applied Analysis
Volume 2014, Article ID 693205, 14 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/693205
Research Article

Hybrid Wind Speed Forecasting Model Study Based on SSA and Intelligent Optimized Algorithm

Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received 9 January 2014; Accepted 13 February 2014; Published 3 April 2014

Academic Editor: Suohai Fan

Copyright © 2014 Wenyu Zhang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Accurate wind speed forecasting is important for the reliable and efficient operation of the wind power system. The present study investigated singular spectrum analysis (SSA) with a reduced parameter algorithm in three time series models, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the support vector machine (SVM) model, and the artificial neural network (ANN) model, to forecast the wind speed in Shandong province, China. In the proposed model, the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) is first employed as a physical background to provide the elements of weather data. To reduce these noises, SSA is used to develop a self-adapting parameter selection algorithm that is fully data-driven. After optimization, the SSA-based forecasting models are applied to forecasting the immediate short-term wind speed and are adopted at ten wind farms in China. Finally, the performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using observed data according to three error calculation methods. The simulation results from ten cases show that the proposed method has better forecasting performance than the traditional methods.