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Abstract and Applied Analysis
Volume 2014, Article ID 875474, 5 pages
Research Article

Estimation of Hospital Potential Capacity and Basic Reproduction Number

1Information Department, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing 400038, China
2Information Department, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing 400042, China

Received 7 January 2014; Accepted 5 February 2014; Published 6 March 2014

Academic Editor: Weiming Wang

Copyright © 2014 Fei Wang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


In order to reflect the population covered by institutional medical services, the concept of hospital potential capacity is proposed and a formula for its estimation is developed based on a population dynamic model. Using the collected data on hospital outpatient and inpatient services and the demographical information on Chongqing as an example, the demand for medical resource allocation in Chongqing is dynamically estimated. Moreover, the proposed formula is also useful in the estimation of the basic reproduction number in epidemiology. The results can be contributed to the improvement of decision-making in the allocation of medical resources and the evaluation of the interventions and control efforts of the infectious disease.