A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach

Table 4

CI of the CIS surveys data using the joint multinomial probability function of each survey.

Survey dates	PSOE	PP	Other political parties	Abstention
= Oct. 02
= Jan. 03
= Apr. 03
= Jul. 03
= Oct. 03
= Jan. 04