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Abstract and Applied Analysis
Volume 2015, Article ID 828461, 21 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/828461
Research Article

Mathematical Model of MDR-TB and XDR-TB with Isolation and Lost to Follow-Up

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Austin Peay State University, Clarksville, TN 37044, USA

Received 24 February 2015; Accepted 31 May 2015

Academic Editor: Juan-Carlos Cortés

Copyright © 2015 F. B. Agusto et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

We present a deterministic model with isolation and lost to follow-up for the transmission dynamics of three strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB), namely, the drug sensitive, multi-drug-resistant (MDR), and extensively-drug-resistant (XDR) TB strains. The model is analyzed to gain insights into the qualitative features of its associated equilibria. Some of the theoretical and epidemiological findings indicate that the model has locally asymptotically stable (LAS) disease-free equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model undergoes in the presence of disease reinfection the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Further analysis of the model indicates that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) in the absence of disease reinfection. The result of the global sensitivity analysis indicates that the dominant parameters are the disease progression rate, the recovery rate, the infectivity parameter, the isolation rate, the rate of lost to follow-up, and fraction of fast progression rates. Our results also show that increase in isolation rate leads to a decrease in the total number of individuals who are lost to follow-up.