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Abstract and Applied Analysis
Volume 2016, Article ID 1758459, 9 pages
Research Article

Capturing the Data Uncertainty Change in the Cocaine Consumption in Spain Using an Epidemiologically Based Model

Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politècnica de València, Building 8G, Access C, 2nd Floor, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 València, Spain

Received 12 September 2016; Revised 31 October 2016; Accepted 8 November 2016

Academic Editor: Gongnan Xie

Copyright © 2016 Christopher Anaya et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


A probabilistic model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the cocaine consumption in Spain during the period of 1995–2011. Using the so-called probabilistic fitting technique, we study if the model is able to capture the data uncertainty coming from surveys. The proposed model is formulated through a nonlinear system of difference equations whose coefficients are treated as stochastic processes. A discussion regarding the usefulness and limitations of probabilistic fitting technique in order to capture the data uncertainty of the proposed model is presented.