Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

Table 2

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models fitted for time series data on rice area, productivity, and corresponding selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC).

Parameters	ARIMA model	AIC	SBC
All India
Area, million hectare	ARIMA (0, 1, 1)	165.33	169.38
Productivity, kg ha^−1	ARIMA (2, 1, 0)	674.76	680.84
Production, million tonnes	ARIMA (2, 1, 0)	339.82	343.87
Odisha
Area, million hectare	ARIMA (2, 0, 0)	−46.67	−40.54
Productivity, kg ha^−1	ARIMA (1, 1, 1)	746.61	752.69
Production, million tones	ARIMA (1, 1, 1)	144.27	150.34