Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

Table 3

Final estimates of parameters of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models fitted for time series data on rice area, productivity, and production for Odisha and India.

Parameters	ARIMA parameter	Estimate	Standard error	-value
India
Area, million hectare	MU	0.24	0.07	3.46
	MA1	0.52	0.12	4.46
Productivity, kg ha^−1	MU	25.14	3.99	6.31
	AR1	25.67	6.14	4.18
	AR2	−0.79	0.13	−6.10
Production, million tones	MU	−0.36	0.13	−2.74
	AR1	−0.76	0.13	−5.76
	AR2	−0.30	0.13	−2.22
Odisha
Area, million hectare	MU	3.85	0.14	27.53
	AR1	0.50	0.12	4.18
	AR2	0.49	0.12	4.06
Productivity, kg ha^−1	MU	17.50	8.38	2.09
	MA1	0.56	0.16	3.54
	AR1	−0.33	0.18	−1.87
Production, million tones	MU	0.085	0.04	2.17
	MA1	0.54	0.16	3.41
	AR1	−0.38	0.17	−2.25

Significant at .