Edge Posterior Probabilities—Cross-method comparison on synthetic sine data. The figure shows three histograms of the inferred marginal edge posterior probabilities in the sinusoid network with nodes and and as obtained with BGe (a), BGM (b), and (c). In each histogram, the four bars represent the four possible edges: Left: self-loop (true); centre left: (true); centre right: self-loop (false); right: (false). Each bar shows the average marginal posterior probability, averaged over 50 independent data instantiations. It is seen that BGe and BGM have a high propensity for learning the spurious feedback loop (centre right white bars). (right histogram) assigns a higher posterior probability to the correct edge (centre left black bar) and suppresses the spurious feedback loop (centre right white bar)
