Developing Pavement Distress Deterioration Models for Pavement Management System Using Markovian Probabilistic Process

Table 8

Probability distribution values from the Markov model for all five indices.

Transverse cracking index
Index	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
100	0.631	0.398	0.251	0.158	0.1
95	0.369	0.451	0.413	0.336	0.257
90	0	0.151	0.267	0.314	0.308
85	0	0	0.069	0.167	0.252
80	0	0	0	0.024	0.072
75	0	0	0	0	0.011
Fatigue cracking index
100	0.885	0.783	0.692	0.612	0.542
95	0.115	0.166	0.182	0.18	0.17
90	0	0.052	0.111	0.16	0.195
85	0	0	0.015	0.041	0.071
80	0	0	0	0.06	0.02
75	0	0	0	0	0.002
Longitudinal cracking index
100	0.82	0.673	0.552	0.453	0.372
95	0.18	0.311	0.405	0.469	0.51
90	0	0.015	0.039	0.064	0.088
85	0	0	0.004	0.01	0.016
Ride quality index
100	—	—	—	—	—
95	—	—	—	—	—
90	0.748	0.56	0.419	0.314	0.235
85	0.251	0.384	0.441	0.449	0.429
80	0	0.055	0.129	0.202	0.262
75	0	0	0.011	0.034	0.069
70	0	0	0	0.001	0.005
Rut index
100	0.932	0.869	0.81	0.775	0.704
95	0.068	0.129	0.184	0.234	0.279
90	0	0.002	0.006	0.01	0.016
85	0	0	0	0	0.001