A Comprehensive Study of the Discovery Potential of NO<i>ν</i>A, T2K, and T2HK Experiments

<div>Sensitivity versus running time: <svg height="8.55521pt" id="M370" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 13.7356 8.55521" width="13.7356pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M548 455L523 469C505 448 490 439 461 439C416 439 374 447 316 447C144 447 23 310 23 161C23 47 89 -12 179 -12C312 -12 429 106 429 244C429 303 419 344 368 386L371 388C404 383 440 378 474 378C507 378 530 411 548 455ZM350 274C350 191 308 25 198 25C144 25 108 75 108 157C108 264 170 395 276 395C296 395 320 384 333 360C347 334 350 316 350 274Z" id="g113-240"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="565" vert-adv-y="565"></glyph.data></g></svg> error in <svg height="12.584pt" id="M371" style="vertical-align:-3.29567pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 18.3988 12.584" width="18.3988pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M494 514C482 587 419 712 303 712C238 712 174 667 174 603C174 561 205 514 249 449C219 438 187 422 162 407C93 366 23 283 23 177C23 69 87 -12 190 -12C244 -12 288 5 328 33C406 87 444 170 444 249C444 329 404 391 331 475C265 550 222 605 222 627C222 647 238 657 267 657C355 657 421 585 484 499L494 514ZM359 234C359 143 319 30 219 30C172 30 114 75 114 178C114 275 163 343 195 378C212 397 241 415 269 425C305 382 359 313 359 234Z" id="g113-226"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="517" vert-adv-y="517"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.396,3.132)"><path d="M618 181C565 77 513 26 413 26C264 26 151 150 151 336C151 486 240 625 407 625C516 625 573 582 600 475L634 483C627 540 622 581 613 638C585 643 518 665 435 665C211 665 46 526 46 315C46 158 157 -15 406 -15C480 -15 564 4 594 12C612 43 638 121 651 168L618 181Z" id="g58-65"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="673" vert-adv-y="673"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.52,3.132)"><path d="M46 650V618C122 613 130 611 130 522V128C130 46 123 40 40 32V0H319V32C227 40 217 42 217 128V279L292 260C303 259 322 258 338 261C436 272 534 337 534 467C534 534 508 580 469 609C428 640 371 650 299 650H46ZM217 558C217 585 220 596 228 603C235 610 256 615 284 615C367 615 435 571 435 463C435 339 358 304 291 304C256 304 229 310 217 317V558Z" id="g58-78"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="573" vert-adv-y="573"></glyph.data></g></svg> as a function of running time in years for true value of <svg height="12.584pt" id="M372" style="vertical-align:-3.29567pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 39.5855 12.584" width="39.5855pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M494 514C482 587 419 712 303 712C238 712 174 667 174 603C174 561 205 514 249 449C219 438 187 422 162 407C93 366 23 283 23 177C23 69 87 -12 190 -12C244 -12 288 5 328 33C406 87 444 170 444 249C444 329 404 391 331 475C265 550 222 605 222 627C222 647 238 657 267 657C355 657 421 585 484 499L494 514ZM359 234C359 143 319 30 219 30C172 30 114 75 114 178C114 275 163 343 195 378C212 397 241 415 269 425C305 382 359 313 359 234Z" id="g113-226"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="517" vert-adv-y="517"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.396,3.132)"><path d="M618 181C565 77 513 26 413 26C264 26 151 150 151 336C151 486 240 625 407 625C516 625 573 582 600 475L634 483C627 540 622 581 613 638C585 643 518 665 435 665C211 665 46 526 46 315C46 158 157 -15 406 -15C480 -15 564 4 594 12C612 43 638 121 651 168L618 181Z" id="g58-65"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="673" vert-adv-y="673"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.52,3.132)"><path d="M46 650V618C122 613 130 611 130 522V128C130 46 123 40 40 32V0H319V32C227 40 217 42 217 128V279L292 260C303 259 322 258 338 261C436 272 534 337 534 467C534 534 508 580 469 609C428 640 371 650 299 650H46ZM217 558C217 585 220 596 228 603C235 610 256 615 284 615C367 615 435 571 435 463C435 339 358 304 291 304C256 304 229 310 217 317V558Z" id="g58-78"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="573" vert-adv-y="573"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.907,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,33.17,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z" id="g113-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg> (left panel). The fraction of <svg height="12.584pt" id="M373" style="vertical-align:-3.29567pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 18.3988 12.584" width="18.3988pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M494 514C482 587 419 712 303 712C238 712 174 667 174 603C174 561 205 514 249 449C219 438 187 422 162 407C93 366 23 283 23 177C23 69 87 -12 190 -12C244 -12 288 5 328 33C406 87 444 170 444 249C444 329 404 391 331 475C265 550 222 605 222 627C222 647 238 657 267 657C355 657 421 585 484 499L494 514ZM359 234C359 143 319 30 219 30C172 30 114 75 114 178C114 275 163 343 195 378C212 397 241 415 269 425C305 382 359 313 359 234Z" id="g113-226"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="517" vert-adv-y="517"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.396,3.132)"><path d="M618 181C565 77 513 26 413 26C264 26 151 150 151 336C151 486 240 625 407 625C516 625 573 582 600 475L634 483C627 540 622 581 613 638C585 643 518 665 435 665C211 665 46 526 46 315C46 158 157 -15 406 -15C480 -15 564 4 594 12C612 43 638 121 651 168L618 181Z" id="g58-65"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="673" vert-adv-y="673"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.52,3.132)"><path d="M46 650V618C122 613 130 611 130 522V128C130 46 123 40 40 32V0H319V32C227 40 217 42 217 128V279L292 260C303 259 322 258 338 261C436 272 534 337 534 467C534 534 508 580 469 609C428 640 371 650 299 650H46ZM217 558C217 585 220 596 228 603C235 610 256 615 284 615C367 615 435 571 435 463C435 339 358 304 291 304C256 304 229 310 217 317V558Z" id="g58-78"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="573" vert-adv-y="573"></glyph.data></g></svg> for which <svg height="14.0924pt" id="M374" style="vertical-align:-3.2957pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.7967 43.6003 14.0924" width="43.6003pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M494 514C482 587 419 712 303 712C238 712 174 667 174 603C174 561 205 514 249 449C219 438 187 422 162 407C93 366 23 283 23 177C23 69 87 -12 190 -12C244 -12 288 5 328 33C406 87 444 170 444 249C444 329 404 391 331 475C265 550 222 605 222 627C222 647 238 657 267 657C355 657 421 585 484 499L494 514ZM359 234C359 143 319 30 219 30C172 30 114 75 114 178C114 275 163 343 195 378C212 397 241 415 269 425C305 382 359 313 359 234Z" id="g113-226"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="517" vert-adv-y="517"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.396,3.132)"><path d="M618 181C565 77 513 26 413 26C264 26 151 150 151 336C151 486 240 625 407 625C516 625 573 582 600 475L634 483C627 540 622 581 613 638C585 643 518 665 435 665C211 665 46 526 46 315C46 158 157 -15 406 -15C480 -15 564 4 594 12C612 43 638 121 651 168L618 181Z" id="g58-65"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="673" vert-adv-y="673"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.52,3.132)"><path d="M46 650V618C122 613 130 611 130 522V128C130 46 123 40 40 32V0H319V32C227 40 217 42 217 128V279L292 260C303 259 322 258 338 261C436 272 534 337 534 467C534 534 508 580 469 609C428 640 371 650 299 650H46ZM217 558C217 585 220 596 228 603C235 610 256 615 284 615C367 615 435 571 435 463C435 339 358 304 291 304C256 304 229 310 217 317V558Z" id="g58-78"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="573" vert-adv-y="573"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.907,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,33.17,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z" id="g113-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,39.41,-5.741)"><path d="M339 262C339 340 273 403 193 403S48 340 48 262S113 121 193 121S339 184 339 262ZM283 262C283 210 242 168 193 168S104 210 104 262S144 356 193 356S283 314 283 262Z" id="g54-73"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="385" vert-adv-y="385"></glyph.data></g></svg>, <svg height="11.0031pt" id="M375" style="vertical-align:-0.2064009pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.7967 22.9046 11.0031" width="22.9046pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M249 635C141 635 70 555 70 471C70 401 114 353 179 316C143 294 106 267 90 252C68 231 45 202 45 157C45 50 130 -12 237 -12C322 -12 435 52 435 169C435 256 372 304 303 343C349 374 375 398 383 407C401 429 411 458 411 487C411 569 344 635 249 635ZM238 603C285 603 337 567 337 482C337 422 310 385 276 358C205 393 145 426 145 500C145 552 179 603 238 603ZM248 20C183 20 125 70 125 163C125 218 158 268 206 300C284 261 355 217 355 143C355 66 308 20 248 20Z" id="g113-57"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.527,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z" id="g113-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,18.767,-5.741)"><path d="M339 262C339 340 273 403 193 403S48 340 48 262S113 121 193 121S339 184 339 262ZM283 262C283 210 242 168 193 168S104 210 104 262S144 356 193 356S283 314 283 262Z" id="g54-73"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="385" vert-adv-y="385"></glyph.data></g></svg> is excluded with <svg height="8.55521pt" id="M376" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 13.7356 8.55521" width="13.7356pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M548 455L523 469C505 448 490 439 461 439C416 439 374 447 316 447C144 447 23 310 23 161C23 47 89 -12 179 -12C312 -12 429 106 429 244C429 303 419 344 368 386L371 388C404 383 440 378 474 378C507 378 530 411 548 455ZM350 274C350 191 308 25 198 25C144 25 108 75 108 157C108 264 170 395 276 395C296 395 320 384 333 360C347 334 350 316 350 274Z" id="g113-240"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="565" vert-adv-y="565"></glyph.data></g></svg> as a function of running time.</div>

Advances in High Energy Physics

fig7

Figure 7

Figure 7: A Comprehensive Study of the Discovery Potential of NO<i>ν</i>A, T2K, and T2HK Experiments 

Advances in High Energy Physics

A Comprehensive Study of the Discovery Potential of NOνA, T2K, and T2HK Experiments

Figure 7