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Typhoon Maria Precipitation Retrieval and Evolution Based on the Infrared Brightness Temperature of the Feng-Yun 4A/Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager
Recognizing the importance and challenges inherent in the remote sensing of precipitation in typhoon monitoring, a study of the Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) data from Feng-Yun 4A on typhoon precipitation was conducted. First, Typhoon Maria was selected to statistically analyze the AGRI infrared brightness temperature in the “precipitation” and “nonprecipitation” channels of the field of view. When there was precipitation, the brightness temperature of the AGRI channel changed significantly. Second, the shrunken locally linear embedding algorithm (SLLE) was adopted to carry out the retrieval of precipitation based on the brightness temperatures of AGRI infrared channels 8–14. The contribution rate of the brightness temperature at different channels to the objective function of precipitation retrieval model was obtained by the Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Based on the preliminary experimental “quantification” evaluation index, we concluded that the method adopted in this paper can be used to retrieve precipitation in infrared data and to retrieve the spiral cloud rain bands of a typhoon. Finally, based on the AGRI channel brightness temperature of a 10.8-micron window channel, we applied the membership degree information of a typhoon’s dominant cloud system from the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering method to modify precipitation retrieval results. The results were used to obtain the main morphological structure of typhoon precipitation. By further analyzing the temporal variation of dominant cloud system development using the FCM method, we concluded that the brightness temperature gradient can assist in the analysis of the variation of a typhoon’s intensity. This method can be applied to the continuous retrieval of large-scale precipitation. Precipitation retrieval via the AGRI can yield indicators for typhoon precipitation warnings and forecasts, thus providing a reliable reference tool for disaster prevention and mitigation.
A Novel Framework for Selecting Informative Meteorological Stations Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection (MCFS) Algorithm
Spatial distribution of meteorological stations has a significant role in hydrological research. The meteorological data play a significant role in drought monitoring; in this regard, accurate and suitable provision of meteorological stations is becoming crucial to improve and strengthen the skill of drought prediction. In this perspective, the choice of meteorological stations in a specific region has substantial importance for accurate estimation and continuous monitoring of drought hazards at the regional level. However, installation and data mining on a large number of meteorological stations require high cost and resources. Therefore, it is necessary to rank and find dependencies among existing meteorological stations in a particular region for further climatological analysis and reanalysis of databases. In this paper, the Monte Carlo feature selection and interdependency discovery (MCFS-ID) algorithm-based framework is proposed to identify the important meteorological station in a particular region. We applied the proposed framework on 12 meteorological stations situated in varying climatological regions of Punjab (Pakistan). We employed the drought index SPTI on 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 24-, and 48-month time-scale data to find the interdependencies among meteorological stations at various locations. We found that Sialkot has significance regional importance for studying SPTI-3, SPTI-6, and SPTI-48 indices. This regional importance is based on scores of relative importance (RI); for example, the RI values for SPTI-3, SPTI-6, and SPTI-48 indices are 0.1570, 0.1080, and 0.0270, respectively. Furthermore, the Jhelum station has more relative importance (RI = 0.1410 and 0.1030) for SPTI-1 and SPTI-9 indices, while varying concentration behaviour is observed in the remaining time scales.
The Spatiotemporal Evolution Pattern and Influential Factor of Regional Carbon Emission Convergence in China
As economic development rapidly progresses in China, a method of carbon emission control that provides reasonable solutions is needed. This paper analyzes the convergence of carbon emission evolutionary characteristics in different regions of China and studies the dynamics of carbon emissions in China based on a convergence model. It was found that the carbon emission levels of each region are prominent in terms of time, and the regional carbon emission level has absolute β characteristics. The regional carbon emission condition β convergences have different convergence paths. Therefore, it is necessary to justify carbon emission reduction in China and put forward an emission reduction strategy.
Wind Speed-Independent Two-Source Energy Balance Model Based on a Theoretical Trapezoidal Relationship between Land Surface Temperature and Fractional Vegetation Cover for Evapotranspiration Estimation
An accurate estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration over heterogeneous surfaces using satellite imagery and few meteorological observations remains a challenging task. Wind speed (u), which is known to exhibit high temporal-spatial variation, is a significant constraint in the abovementioned task. In this study, a wind speed-independent two-source energy balance (WiTSEB) model is proposed on the basis of a theoretical land surface temperature (Tr)-fractional vegetation coverage (fc) trapezoidal space and a two-stage evapotranspiration decomposing method. The temperatures in theoretically driest boundaries of the Tr-fc trapezoid are iteratively calculated without u by using an assumption of the absence of sensible heat exchange between water-saturated surface and atmosphere in the vertical direction under the given atmospheric condition. The WiTSEB was conducted in HiWATER-MUSOEXE-12 in the middle reaches of the Heihe watershed across eight landscapes by using ASTER images. Results indicate that WiTSEB provides reliable estimates in latent heat flux (LE), with root-mean-square-errors (RMSE) and coefficient of determination of 68.6 W m−2 and 0.88, respectively. The RMSE of the ratio of the vegetation transpiration component to LE is 5.7%. Sensitivity analysis indicates WiTSEB does not aggravate the sensitivity on meteorological and remote sensing inputs in comparison with other two-source models. The errors of estimated Tr and observed soil heat flux result in LE overestimation/underestimation over parts of landscapes. The two-stage evapotranspiration decomposing method is carefully verified by ground observation.
A Quality Control Method Based on an Improved Kernel Regression Algorithm for Surface Air Temperature Observations
An improved kernel regression (IKR) method based on an adaptive algorithm and particle swarm optimization is proposed. Considering the limitations of current quality control methods in different regions and on multiple time scales, the kernel regression algorithm is applied to the quality control of surface air temperature observations. Observations of 12 reference stations in Jiangsu from 1961 to 2008 and of 14 regions in China from 2010 to 2014 were selected. The analysis of surface air temperature observations was performed in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), consistency indicator (IOA), and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSC). The results indicate that compared with the traditional IDW and SRT methods, the IKR method has a high error detection rate. Furthermore, the IKR method achieves better predictions and fitting in the single-station and multistation regression experiments in Jiangsu and in the national multistation regression prediction experiment.
Potential Impacts of Projected Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios on Streamflow in the Wabash River Basin
Global climate change is becoming an increasingly important issue that threatens the imperiled planet. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the streamflow has been an essential task for the proper management of water resources to mitigate this impact. This study aims to evaluate the skill of an artificial neural network (ANN) method in downscaling precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature and assess the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow in the Wabash River Basin of the Midwestern United States (U.S.) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). A statistical downscaling technique based on an ANN method was employed to estimate precipitation and temperature at a higher resolution. The downscaled climate projections from five general circulation models (GCMs) under the three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for the periods of 2026–2050 and 2075–2099 as well as the historical period were incorporated into the SWAT model to assess the potential impact of climate change on the Wabash River regime. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model indicated the streamflow simulations matched the observed results very well. The ANN method successfully reproduced the observed maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation; however, bias in precipitation was observed in regard to the frequency distribution. Compared with the simulated streamflow in the historical period, the predicted streamflow based on the RCP scenarios showed an obvious decreasing trend, where the annual streamflows will be decreased by 13.00%, 17.59%, and 6.91% in the midcentury periods and 25.29%, 27.61%, and 15.04% in the late-century periods under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Climate warming dominated the streamflow decrease under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. By contrast, under RCP8.5, the streamflow was affected by the joint actions of changes in temperature and precipitation.