Figure 8: Modeled and observed annually averaged SST changes over the Atlantic cyclogenesis region. Model results are multi-model averages for the 20th and 21st centuries. Observed changes are for the 20th century only. All anomalies were defined relative to climatological means over 1900–1909. The shaded envelopes are the confidence intervals calculated across the ensemble of simulated SST changes from different models. All data were smoothed by application of a 13-point binomial filter. The amplitude of simulated and observed SST variability over the 20th century is not directly comparable because simulated changes are averaged over realizations and models, thus damping climate noise. The CCSM3.0 result is shown for reference.