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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2011, Article ID 138425, 11 pages
Research Article

Characteristic Features of Precipitation Extremes over India in the Warming Scenarios

1Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, NCL Post, Pashan, Pune 411008, Maharashtra, India
2World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Received 27 December 2010; Accepted 24 March 2011

Academic Editor: Eugene Rozanov

Copyright © 2011 J. V. Revadekar et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The detection of possible changes in extreme climate events, in terms of the frequency, intensity as well as duration assumes profound importance on the local, regional, and national scales, due to the associated critical socioeconomic consequences. Therefore, an attempt is made in this paper to evaluate various aspects of future projections of precipitation extremes over India, as projected by a state-of-art regional climate modeling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) towards the end of the 21st century (that is, 2071–2100) using standardized indices. Study reveals that PRECIS simulations under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentration and sulphate aerosols indicate marked increase in precipitation towards the end of the 21st century and is expected to increase throughout the year. However the changes in daily precipitation and the precipitation extremes during summer monsoon (June through September) season are prominent than during the rest of year. PRECIS simulations under both A2 and B2 scenarios indicate increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in the precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitudes of changes in B2 scenario are on the lower side.