Figure 7: The truncated Svalbard MAAT series 1912–1990, redrawn from [4]. The grey line shows annual observed values. The thin blue line shows the measured values 1991–2010, which were excluded from analysis. The thick blue line shows the simple running 9 yr average of the original data. MAAT values modelled using three cycles only are shown by the green line. The 1991–2010 part of this represents the out-of-sample forecast. The coefficient of determination ( ) for the hindcasting period is 0.36 ( ). The overall linear temperature trend 1912–1990 is 0.099°C per decade, and this overall trend is assumed to continue beyond 1990 when plotting the forecasted data.