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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2013 (2013), Article ID 578350, 7 pages
Research Article

A Comparison of Two Land Use Simulation Models under the RCP4.5 Scenario in China

1State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
3School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

Received 7 August 2013; Revised 13 November 2013; Accepted 13 November 2013

Academic Editor: Xiangzheng Deng

Copyright © 2013 Feng Wu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The land use simulation model is an important tool to analyze the land use/land cover change (LUCC), which plays a key role in influencing the global warming. However, there have been very few global LUCC simulation models, especially the models that can be used to analyze the interaction among the socioeconomic development, climate change, and LUCC. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the GTAP-AEZ model are two models that take account of the influence of social economy and climate change at the global scale, but they may have some parameter errors due to the rough parameter setting. This study aims to compare the simulation results obtained with the GCAM model and GTAP-AEZ model and optimize their parameters according to the specific conditions of China. First, we simulated the land use structure in China in 2010 with the two models and compared the simulation results with the real one. Second, we calibrated these parameters of models according to the China’s national conditions and implemented the simulation again. The result indicates that the calibrated GCAM can provide more accurate simulation result of land use, which can provide significant reference information for the land use planning and policy formulation to mitigate the climate change in China.