Research Article

The Impact of Mesoscale Environmental Uncertainty on the Prediction of a Tornadic Supercell Storm Using Ensemble Data Assimilation Approach

Figure 6

Neighborhood ensemble probability forecasts of 0–3 km updraft helicity from (a) FixedPhysics and (b) MultiPhysics convective-scale ensembles exceeding thresholds of 50 m2 s−2 starting at 2200 UTC and ending at 2240 UTC over the entire convective-scale domain. Overlaid in each panel is the NWS observed tornado damage track (black outline) that starts at 2210 UTC and ends at 2238 UTC.
(a) FixedPhysics
(b) MultiPhysics