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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2013, Article ID 818394, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/818394
Research Article

Low-Level Polarimetric Radar Signatures in EnKF Analyses and Forecasts of the May 8, 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell: Impact of Multimoment Microphysics and Comparisons with Observation

1Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L. Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072, USA
2NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072, USA
3Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072, USA
4School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73072, USA

Received 31 May 2013; Accepted 26 August 2013

Academic Editor: David J. Stensrud

Copyright © 2013 Daniel T. Dawson II et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The impact of increasing the number of predicted moments in a multimoment bulk microphysics scheme is investigated using ensemble Kalman filter analyses and forecasts of the May 8, 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic supercell storm and the analyses are validated using dual-polarization radar observations. The triple-moment version of the microphysics scheme exhibits the best performance, relative to the single- and double-moment versions, in reproducing the low- hail core and high- arc, as well as an improved probabilistic track forecast of the mesocyclone. A comparison of the impact of the improved microphysical scheme on probabilistic forecasts of the mesocyclone track with the observed tornado track is also discussed.