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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2013 (2013), Article ID 919013, 12 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/919013
Research Article

Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

1School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
2School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100038, China
3Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
4Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received 17 July 2013; Accepted 26 September 2013

Academic Editor: Burak Güneralp

Copyright © 2013 Qian Xu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC) is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model). We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.