Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS
Observed and simulated hydrographs during (a) Typhoon Jangmi, (b) Typhoon Sinlaku, and (c) Typhoon Fungwong. The MAEs of model calibration and validation were 101.0, 224.8, and 84.8 m3/s. The result proves that the calibrated HEC-HMS model provides confident estimations for the timing and value of the peak flow and for the cumulative water volume into the reservoir. The SCS-CN method was selected to estimate rainfall loss, including interception, depression storage, infiltration, evaporation, and transpiration. This method estimates precipitation excess as a function of cumulative precipitation, soil cover, land use, and antecedent moisture.