Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

<table>Example of 72 h reservoir inflow ensemble forecast for the Shihmen Reservoir from 20:00, July 11, 2013 to 19:00, July 14, 2013. This result was based on the TAPEX 78 h precipitation ensemble forecast from 14:00, July 11, 2013 to 19:00, July 14, 2013. The initial six hours were set as the warm-up time of simulation and were not included in the analysis. In addition, the gray lines represented hourly inflow forecast by each individual member. The black line represented the result by ensemble-mean of these 21 members.</table>

Advances in Meteorology

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Figure 5

Figure 5: Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS 