Advances in Meteorology / 2014 / Article / Tab 1

Research Article

Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

Table 1

Collected six typhoons’ historical data. The first three typhoons’ observed data, namely, Typhoon Fungwong, Typhoon Sinlaku, and Typhoon Jangmi, were used for model calibration and validation. The second three typhoons’ TAPEX ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts, namely, Typhoon Morakot, Typhoon Saola, and Typhoon Soulik, were used for model application to provide the reservoir inflow forecast for the Shihmen Reservoir.

TyphoonYear TAPEX period
(land warning period*)
TrackMax. cumulative rainfall** (mm)
24 h48 h72 h

Fungwong2008
(7/27 2:30~7/29 11:30)
3235.8 280.4 282.1
Sinlaku2008
(9/12 5:30~9/15 20:30)
2412.0 711.1 899.0
Jangmi2008
(9/27 8:30~9/29 17:30)
2317.2 369.2 404.4

Morakot20098/6 8:00–8/8 2:00
(8/6 8:30~8/10 5:30)
3265.0 413.3 466.7
Saola20127/31 8:00–8/1 20:00
(7/31 20:30~8/3 14:30)
2397.7 398.6 422.6
Soulik20137/11 8:00–7/12 20:00
(7/11 20:30~7/13 23:30)
2494.3 672.7 798.9

*The land waning period of typhoons was based on the Typhoon Database of Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan (http://rdc28.cwb.gov.tw/). Periods are MM/DD notation.
**Data from the Shihmen Reservoir Management Center (http://www.wranb.gov.tw/). Thiessen’s polygon method was used to calculate the average rainfall and maximum cumulative rainfall. Selected precipitation gauges and the corresponding weights of Thiessen’s polygon were listed in Table 3.